Jul 24 2008
What Could Go Wrong
The Blazers are the most hopeful young-talent-loaded team in the NBA. That’s impossible to deny. They stole the NBA summer league MVP, and he won’t even be one of the two best rookies on the team. The general wisdom is that the Blazers will be perennial contenders with that time period starting as early as this year and without a doubt in the next three. However, all this optimism really needs some tempering. What could go wrong?
The Blazers are a young team. What the entire team operates in is that unknown quantity - words like potential and upside. There are no tangible figures about what the team will be. Sure Travis Outlaw could be a 20-plus scorer with his jumping ability, but the operating form is the conditional “could.” He could also never get his head on straight and become the player he has the potential to be and continue firing those foot on the line Outlaw specials.
There are the injury concerns, as well. Oden is the obvious choice for this, so I won’t really go into it. The greatest example of potential becoming reality for him that we’ve seen so far is the fact that his leg issues turned out to be gravely serious. He’s not alone. There is the man behind him that many call the best back-up center in the NBA: Joel Przybilla. He hasn’t played a full season since God knows when. A thin, injury prone front line would kill any chances this team has for a playoff run. Do you really expect Channing to play the role of bruiser in the playoffs if Greg and Joel go down?
There is also the condition of the overseas transition. Everyone knows the success stories; the guys like Tony Parker, Dirk Nowitzki, and Manu Ginobili. Even our own people like Sabas and Petrovic. Those guys aren’t the rule, though. The rule is just as much the failures or the fizzle-outs; Darko, Sergio, Monia, and Veektor. Yes, I intentionally included three Blazers. We know better than anyone the highs and lows of potential foreign players. Until we see anything on an NBA court, Rudy, Batum, and Koponen are just potential, and nothing more.
Finally, there’s just the issue of other teams being good. The Blazers aren’t working in a vacuum. All the other teams are trying just as hard to win the championship as the Blazers are (except the Bucks). There are plenty of teams peaking or looking to peak at the same time as us. The Jazz will be great for the next decade, as will be the Lakers. We are not alone.
Don’t take this as negativity - it’s not. Just take it as pragmatism. Not every move Kevin Pritchard makes will be perfect. It’s impossible (I hope it isn’t, though). With standards that high, you’re destined for disappointment. Then again, with lowered standards, the highs will be a little higher, too. Things are looking up, but let’s not go crazy, okay?
