Trail Post - A Portland Trail Blazers Blog

The +/- stat is a funny thing. It’s roundly derided and it really serves no purpose other than to make people who feel one way feel better about their position due to the added tidbit of evidence. It’s the Keith Olbermann of stats.

“Did you know that George W. Bush wanted to feed puppies to Katrina victims?” No I didn’t, Keith! Thank goodness I didn’t vote for that guy!

The hate-love relationship we have with Travis Outlaw has been well-chronicled, but there needs to be yet another chapter added. Why the hell are we playing Travis Outlaw for more than 22 minutes per night? The man is completely useless outside of the fourth quarter. During the first quarter last night, when Travis came in, the Blazers were up 5. When he came out, they were down 10. Later, when he came in during the third after Nicolas Batum brought the team back into the game, the lead was run back up to 13 after being cut to 5.

The thesis for the night was “Travis Outlaw is not a worthwhile basketball player.” +/- gave me the answer I wanted. If it didn’t, it could have easily been disregarded as a bad stat.

Here’s the issue with Travis Outlaw. He has an incredible nose for the big moment, and enters an insane zone which makes him nearly unstoppable at the end of games. The problem is, he has zero focus for the rest of the game. He creates what I like to call “The Outlaw Paradox.” It’s when he comes into the game when the Blazers are up or clicking well, and his lack of defense causes the team to fall into a deep hole. Because the team is in a hole, Nate leaves him in the game because the conventional wisdom says we need his offense, and not Batum’s defense, to shoot us back into the game. The hole deepens until the fourth quarter, when Travis wakes up and realizes there’s a game going.

Back to the +/- though. You can guess how they’re going to look based on the subject matter of the post. The Blazers lost by 4. Nicolas Batum had a rating of +22 during the game in 27 minutes. Travis Outlaw, however, had a rating of -17 in 27 minutes. Yes, that’s a 40-point swing between the two players last night. The Outlaw Paradox was hard at work.

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